inonada loses!!!

Mark this day in your calendars, ladies & gentlemen: inonada is not infallible. As a reminder, the wager was on the SE price index for sales in Jan 2021 vs. Jun 2021. All participants thought the change would be negligible, but the question was whether it'd go up negligibly or down negligibly. Even though inonada thought the market was heating up, he thought technicalities related to delays in... [more]

Mark this day in your calendars, ladies & gentlemen: inonada is not infallible. As a reminder, the wager was on the SE price index for sales in Jan 2021 vs. Jun 2021. All participants thought the change would be negligible, but the question was whether it'd go up negligibly or down negligibly. Even though inonada thought the market was heating up, he thought technicalities related to delays in offer => contract => closing, combined with averaging across recent months in the index, would keep Jun 2021 slightly under Jan 2021. He was off by a month. While May was 0.37% lower than January, June was 0.20% higher. I think there will be slight revisions to the June number in the upcoming month or two from straggler closing records, but 0.20% seems too large a number to overcome... Month Manhattan 1/1/2021 1022534 2/1/2021 1018735 3/1/2021 1013780 4/1/2021 1015624 5/1/2021 1018797 6/1/2021 1024624 [less]