Real estate or Bitcoin?

That is why Luttig's voice is so important. He has historically been one of the Deans of FedSoc. Stay tuned.

P.S. re Luttig - he has not been a judge in awhile, but many lawyers still refer to him as Judge Luttig. Others might know him as Boeing's General Counsel from 2006-2020.

This is who Luttig used to be (from an article published in 2001):
"Judge Michael Luttig on the Court of Appeals for the Fourth Circuit, for example, hires only students with membership in the Federalist Society or comparable credentials on their resumes. And almost all of Judge Luttig's clerks go on to clerkships at the Supreme Court. His unheard-of batting average is sustained because Judge Luttig diverts clerks who don't land a clerkship with other Justices to Justice Scalia (whom Luttig himself clerked for) and Justice Clarence Thomas."

I think SBF’s parents must be lobbying Trump for a pardon as we speak, and Trump should grant it. It checks all the Trumpian boxes:

- Nullify Sassoon’s big win out of spite.

- Payback and warning to crypto community for deigning that $Trump was making a mockery of the crypto industry.

- Give an infamous criminal a free pass.

- Listen to last voice in the room.

At 3% odds, I think the market’s got it all wrong:

https://polymarket.com/event/trump-pardons

https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cp9x9j89evxo

@nada - you make a compelling case;
@stache - yup.

This is all a giant joke to Elon Musk. I can't believe it has taken this long for someone to introduce the fact that the name of his government efficiency initiative - DOGE - is a nod to the fun he has been having with everyone in the crypto industry for years. https://finance.yahoo.com/news/elon-musk-breaks-silence-dogecoin-020654430.html?fr=sycsrp_catchall

I am going to try really hard to stay out of this discussion going forward. I have voiced enough of my thoughts on the interplay between the interplay between the VCs, cryptocurrency and politics in another forum (that is not anonymous and focused on Silicon Valley). I don't have the energy to engage in this forum, but suffice it to say, I am with krolik and steve123 on this one; anyone who trades in this space is a gambler, pure and simple.

SBF Will not get a pardon, doesn't fit the archetype.

>> Keith, why do you say that?

>> anyone who trades in this space is a gambler, pure and simple

I don’t know think that properly characterizes it. There are the true believers (or at least believe themselves to be so long as prices are heading up) who buy & hold. There are the people looking to get rich quick. There are the institutions who have been looking silly for 10 years saying this is a fad and now have started questioning themselves. There are the market makers and liquidity providers. There are the grifters. This is what speculation looks like.

You might well be right that the price has exceeded the intrinsic value of BTC. And I would generally tell people to steer clear of investments where they cannot establish an intrinsic value, buying only if it is lower. But most people don’t listen, as I learned on this forum circa 15 years ago. And governments fan the flames, as do holders of inflated asset and insitutions, with the people cheering on (recalll housing bubble, low rates, etc.).

This is speculation. Gambling is different. With gambling, people (non-addicts) know they’ll lose money but are willing to pay for the fun of the thrill of maybe winning big. I don’t think the typical BTC buyer today is thinking, “You know what… I’ll probably lose money.” I’d guess their expectation is that they’ll be making money.

Fair points.

I had to look for where I called it gambling, not sure if this makes a difference to you but I was referring to the hundreds of meme coins out there. I do view BTC as different. But I guess I see your point, that even these meme coins are more speculation than gambling. Poor choice of words on my part.

Sorry Keith, I screwed up my post. My gambling vs speculation comment was directed at MCR. I meant to write this to you:

>> SBF Will not get a pardon, doesn't fit the archetype.

Keith, why do you say that?

>> I do view BTC as different. But I guess I see your point, that even these meme coins are more speculation than gambling.

The whole notion of meme coins vs serious coins is interesting. The technology and outright code is the same. The difference is in the marketing, I guess? In one case, you write a manifesto about a new fiat currency detached from central government printing presses. That’s serious. In the other, you explain how it’s a souvenir solely suitable for expressing your support for the historic $Trump victory. That’s a meme.

FTR, I don’t have a great sense for the intentions of meme coin holders. The size of most wallets (<$100 for $Trump) might indicate entertainment value, which I suppose has more in common with gambling than speculation?

Regarding this case: "you write a manifesto about a new fiat currency detached from central government printing presses."

That compelling narrative pushed by the purveyors is compelling and why we are going to see the train wreck over . . . and over . . . and over . . . again.

The theory is awesome, but human nature makes its realization impracticable.

The purveyors will continue to "sell" the theory, and the masses don't stand a chance against the market manipulators.

For my part, I may well put a few dollars into the slot machine when the inevitable next crash comes with the full knowledge that in doing so I am gambling rather than speculating.

>> For my part, I may well put a few dollars into the slot machine when the inevitable next crash comes with the full knowledge that in doing so I am gambling rather than speculating.

Given the beliefs you’ve stated on this forum, why would you bother?

FWIW, I think this sort of attitude must be playing a material role in what we are seeing. People in the US have a total net worth of ~$100T. Worldwide, it’s ~4.5x that. Imagine 10% of them saying “You know, I don’t really get this thing… but it *could* be a thing… and given all the hub-bub maybe it is… so lemme drop 1% of my net worth in it, an amount I can afford to lose, and see what happens.” That alone creates $450B of demand.

Regarding Sam, there's nothing at all redeeming about him, He's not likable and he pissed off a lot of people as he reached the Pinnacle of crypto. Although I don't really understand Ulbricht or his true motivations for creating the silk road. It seemed to be built more on a utopian libertarian ideology.

But I think you're correct, his parents may be trying to lobby through Trump channels. But do a couple of professors from Stanford have enough influence? Unless they're very dear friends of the kushner's, or something along those lines, I don't think they have a snowballs chance in hell. And I'm going to guess they're probably not Trump supporters ; )

@nada - because gambling is fun!! Playing poker by the statistics is generally a winning proposition, but no fun. So much more fun to play the 2/7 and hope you are going to land a full house against the odds.

Hmm, yeah. SBF needs to get back on Twitter… or better yet, Truth Social… and slowly start buttering up with innocuous observations about how this administration is doing so many things right.

Come to think of it… in late 2021, I amended my 2018 taxes correcting a minor calculation resulting in a ~$1000 refund owed by the IRS. It has been sitting in the black hole of the IRS for 3.5 years, and as of yesterday I had given up all hope — wondering if I should just delete my reminder to check up on it every N months. Lo and behold, this morning I saw a check for $1200 — the original $1000, PLUS $200 interest.

Now I’m not saying Elon personally wrote the check himself after ransacking through my records, but what Biden sat on for 3.5 years was resolved by Trump in less than a month.

The hard truth about DOGE for me is that I actually agree with a number things it is doing that I am hearing about that are not making the news.

>> @nada - because gambling is fun!!

Well, there you go…

I guess I’m saying to not underestimate the significance of this effect. I recall a conversation with a marital relative circa 2022 about individual stocks. I was talking MSFTs and INTCs and valuations. He was talking AMCs, fledgling in-clinical-trial biotech companies, and what’s been going up recently based on chatter.

At some point, I asked how much of his net worth he had in stocks. He said no one had ever asked, and he had never really thought about it in those terms. Answer: 7.5% across what I imagine to be a dozen stocks. At that point, I realized we were not playing the same game.

I never followed up on it, but based on tidbits I don’t think it worked out well for him. But it’s 7.5%, not the end of the world. The more pernicious effect, IMO, is how such episodes can turn people off from long-term investing. Attaining 7.5%/yr long-term returns by investing your net worth judiciously should be achievable by anyone, IMO. So a 7.5% loss is a bump in that road. But I think what happens is that people can conflate investment and speculation, with a speculative failure leading them to write off investing.

I've never found gambling fun.

>> The hard truth about DOGE for me is that I actually agree with a number things it is doing that I am hearing about that are not making the news.

It’s OK to acknowledge the positives that come out alongside the fuckups. I was of course being tongue-in-cheek about Trump being the reason for my refund getting processed. But I guess Europe stepping up on defense is a good thing… even though it’s because they now understand that the US seems perfectly capable of putting an erratic bozo in control every other election.

I love gambling, and I love drinking. Just dumb luck that I do not have in my chemical makeup whatever results in addiction to either of those two activities. I used to sub in for one of Mr. MCR's poker games in DC, and the group quickly realized that I was more fun to play with (and they could walk away with whatever I entered the game with most of the time), so they officially gave Mr. MCR's spot to me. Much to their chagrin, I never started any game with enough to make them whole for what Mr. MCR had taken from them over the years, and I never bought in a second time. A few times, not many, I was able to walk away with their money. I viewed the time and money spent as analogous to going out for a nice meal, which is usually wasted on me. I would much rather spend $200 playing poker than at a steak house.

Never would have guessed, MCR.

Like Keith, I don’t find raw gambling fun. The thrill of maybe winning a bunch of money never did anything for me. But the intellectual pursuit can be fun. In Blackjack, it’s a pretty mindless chore, so there’s no fun in that. But with poker, it’s very mindful, so I find it fun.

FWIW, I think playing a 2-7 is a perfectly effective strategy. Bluff someone out of a meaningful pot that is rightfully theirs, then flip the cards over to put them on tilt and/or establish your chops as a bluffer who likes to screw around. Use that to subsequently keep them throwing money into a hand where you hold the nuts.

Not saying that I am any good at it, but I have been known to sometimes play that way. Doesn’t work so well when you’re playing with the same set of people every time, though.

@MCR re: "The hard truth about DOGE for me is that I actually agree with a number things it is doing that I am hearing about that are not making the news."

Curious what those things might look like? I'd imagine theres plenty to agree with, you just don't see much reported.

For me I don't think it's a huge deal to hold a federal workforce to some performance standards / do away with the concept of jobs for life. Further some of the 10% cuts in places that never see cuts doesn't seem terrible onerous.

But that doesn't seem to be what's happening.
Many of the cuts appear to be more of the "this is where & who we legally can get away with it" more than "we are cutting these people for project or performance reasons". Meanwhile those with jobs for life maintain those jobs for life.

Also, it's worth noting federal headcount as a % of population is near record lows.. so it's not like we are historically bloated?

@Steve123 - I sat in a number of interagency meetings on extremely low priority issues that were never going to see the light of day even if the Executive Branch could agree within itself on the right approach. You think Congress is crazy? Try sitting in any interagency meeting, particularly one that rises to Cabinet level prinicipals.

Many issues never even get to Congress from the Executive Branch because all the factions in the Executive Branch represented by the different agencies frequently cannot agree on an agenda. The deep state is real, and what I witnessed of senior bureaucrats usurping power from political appointees was dismaying to say the least.

The political appointees have no idea what is going on in the many layers beneath them, and indeed, some of the largest SNAFUS that I am aware of that came back to haunt the elected politicians are situations that should have been escalated to the principals well before they were (pure speculation ;- Benghazi anyone?)

In my limited experience, there were many Senior Executive Service bureaucrats who were more concerned about maintaining their headcounts and their offices than they were about doing anything good for the country. The stories would be hilarious if they weren't so sad.

The upshot of all of that is that if you have government paid employees who are striving for relevance after their office's mission has expired, you end up with powerful bureaucrats making trouble for private companies and citizens to justify their own existence. DOGE is in the process of eliminating some entire offices within agencies whose statutory mandates have been overtaken by events since the office's creation. Once a statute creates an office, if it very hard to get rid of.

The agencies are like 100-headed serpents, and DOGE's approach to chopping off the heads willy nilly may be the only way to bring back any semblance of the government's vast bureaucracy serving the country's current needs. Unfortunately, even if DOGE succeeds there, it will only be a matter of time before the problem they are trying to remedy recreates itself - it is inherent in democracy. My greatest fear is that the elites who are now in charge are aware of that and are planning on doing away with that pesky form of government altogether.

@mcr My wife usually travels with cards and travel Scrabble. I'm not sure if this is frowned upon, but we usually get a good poker game going at a restaurant while waiting for dinner. I typically get beat by my 12-year-old daughter, perhaps this is why I don't enjoy gambling : )

https://www.wsj.com/finance/currencies/coinbase-crypto-ownership-accounting-7c97b26a?mod=djemHeardEUH

@keith - Your family would travel well with ours. Mr. MCR always has a deck of cards on hand, and I usually travel with both a set of backgammon and liars dice. On only a few occasions have establishments around the world asked us to cease whatever game we might be in the midst of because of their prohibition against gambling in their establishment. Mr. MCR and I settle all of our disagreements over backgammon.

https://www.wsj.com/livecoverage/stock-market-today-dow-sp500-nasdaq-earnings-02-21-2025/card/bybit-hacked-for-more-than-1-4-billion-in-biggest-crypto-heist-of-all-time-Od7IyKoVGsZyIfVANybz?mod=djemHeardEUH

A bit unnerving that they hacked a cold wallet. However, they were transferring eth from their cold wallet to a hot wallet. Unfortunately, it sounds like he didn't fully authenticate the address of the wallet he was sending to, and instead sent it to a spoofed wallet that the hackers created. He admitted as much in the press conference he did.

This is the thing with crypto. The fact that it is essentially cash means there is no recourse.
For some use cases this is great - RECEIVING it is more secure than a check/wire because it can't be reversed!

As a SENDER its terrifying - once it is sent, it is gone gone gone.

Absolutely true. Steve! Had a recent client and I was telling him how I hate sending Bank wires, this was for a fairly large commission rebate. And he commented to me, just wait until you start dealing with crypto, and made some comments about how terrifying that process is, especially when you're moving around millions of dollars.

However, I think they can trace the movement of the stolen coins as it works its way through the blockchain in various wallets.

Regarding this "A bit unnerving that they hacked a cold wallet," I do not know the ins and outs of bitcoin storage by a long shot other than that the die hard believers like Balaji Srinivasan are firm that unless you store it in your own cold wallet, it is not yours. I also know that subscribers to that philosophy are concerned about their cold wallets getting stolen. I don't pretend to understand any of it, but I am not shocked by the fact that a cold wallet was hacked.

And regarding this: "However, I think they can trace the movement of the stolen coins as it works its way through the blockchain in various wallets." Check out the story of how former federal prosecutor Katie Haun busted two federal agents who were supposed to be investigating the Silk Road and ultimately succumbed to its vices. Experts can definitely trace the movement. I believe there was a WSJ article about the computer expert within the Treasury department who was the brains behind the tracing in that investigation.

Experts and law enforcement can trace movements of crypto as the ledger is public, yes. Reversing the transaction or recouping the money is another matter.

Compare challenge of reversing a $100k transfer of crypto to a pseudonymous wallet vs a wire between 2 US regulated entities. Unless you are wiring a commission to a random overseas bank with weak KYC, you are not taking nearly the same risks as you do with a crypto transfer.

This guy got away with it all for 10 years before the tracing caught up with him: https://www.justice.gov/usao-sdny/pr/us-attorney-announces-historic-336-billion-cryptocurrency-seizure-and-conviction

Excerpted from DOJ press release linked above, this is hilarious: "Specifically, law enforcement located 50,491.06251844 Bitcoin of the approximately 53,500 Bitcoin Crime Proceeds (a) in an underground floor safe; and (b) on a single-board computer that was submerged under blankets in a popcorn tin stored in a bathroom closet."

There are also great stories circulating about people who took such care to hide their cold wallets and associated passcodes, all stored physically without ever having touched the internet, that they ending up hiding them even from themselves and lost them forever.

@MCR - yes a few cases of people paying to dig up trash dumps because they threw out their flash drive with the wallet/code

MCR, that would so have been me.

You can lose your physical wallet, but if you loose your passphrases then you're cooked.

@nada

https://cryptoslate.com/sam-bankman-fried-seeks-clemency-empathizes-with-president-donald-trump-over-legal-troubles/

It seems the one part he's leaving out is the fact that he was using customer funds to make highly questionable trades. Wasn't that the illegal part?

Speaking of pardons, poker and crypto: https://www.washingtonpost.com/dc-md-va/2025/02/13/scotus-attorney-tax-case/

@keith: It wasn't the 'trades' - it was about conversion of customer funds, making false statements to financial institutions, investors and regulators, and various acts to facilitate the fraud (two counts of wire fraud, two counts of conspiracy to commit wire fraud, one count of conspiracy to commit securities fraud, one count of conspiracy to commit commodities fraud, and one count of conspiracy to commit money laundering).

What he traded, the stuff he bought, and the potential bribes (further charges not pursued), were just the lurid add-ons to the actual criminal acts. Personally, I'm still waiting for charges to be brought against his father.

And, forget about hacks. Basic accounting treatment (not to mention regulations) is unclear as to who actually owns the crypto currency you might have on deposit at a crypto custodian, so if they go under for whatever reason, you're essentially screwed because you're just another creditor.

https://archive.is/68dFt

https://www.nytimes.com/2025/02/19/magazine/cryptocurrency-scam-kansas-heartland-bank.html?algo=clicks_decay_96&block=5&campaign_id=142&emc=edit_fory_20250223&fellback=true&imp_id=6284591313200884&instance_id=148265&nl=for-you&nlid=20545630&pool=fye-rotating-magazine-ls&rank=1&regi_id=20545630&req_id=1974467888307571&segment_id=191738&surface=for-you-email-rotating-X&user_id=af2abdaff071a02601714e7c932cab6c&variant=0_best_algo

>> Wasn't that the illegal part?

It’s not like he was assaulting police officers.

But Nada, 'they' were fighting the good fight.

omg - you know how I said that even if DOGE succeeded, it would only be a matter of time before the problem recreated itself? Look who is protecting their offices and headcounts at this very moment: https://www.washingtonpost.com/dc-md-va/2025/02/24/musk-email-government-confusion/
I could not get enough of the infighting during the first Trump administration; this group is going to make those folks look like they were holding hands in a Kumbayah circle!!
We've already seen Musk v Ramaswamy (and we know who won that one); then there is Musk v Altman (edge of my seat); now there is Musk v Hegseth/Rubio/Patel; and don't forget the best that is yet to EXPLODE, which is Trump v Musk. I don't have enough popcorn!

>>>Is this truly all smoke and mirrors or is this a new form of currency that will continue to attract investors into the foreseeable future.

>>>But that hype has driven it from 0 to $100,000 coin.

A person much smarter than me explains here in detail how crypto hype works:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qdqZ0q6cuYs

Keith, that young and smart crypto expert in a hoodie working with celebs on their crypto strategy is a scammer that found a way to scam where there are no clear laws or enforcement... very smart indeed

Thanks for sharing, Krolik.

I was talking about crypto with a couple of guys in my gym last week. The trainer says he has a some money in it. At some point he bought Doge when it came out for giggles (say $100) and forgot about it. Some time later, it blew up and he saw the wallet had ballooned for $20k. He quickly moved it into Bitcoin.

He viewed the whole thing as gambling. I suggested it was more speculation, noting the distinction that participants do not participate knowing they’ll lose money in expectation in return for the fun. He seemed to agree. He had never thought about the underlying value of Bitcoin, what it should be relative to gold, etc. He assured me that nobody in his circle thought about it it’s underlying value either. It was a medium for fun and hope. “People gotta have hope.”

So there you have it, viewpoints from one crypto holder. He sometimes wears a hoodie.

@aaron2, Wait, making false statements to financial institutions is a CRIME? that a person could be convicted for? /sarcasm off

He's actually what I would describe as a math nerd with a degree from MIT. Personally, I wouldn't classify him as a scammer, as far as I know, he's not charging anybody for the advice he's provided. And that includes to one of my children.

https://www.wired.com/story/after-a-violent-kidnapping-crypto-elites-hire-bodyguards/?utm_brand=wired&utm_mailing=WIR_Daily_022525&bxid=6045da0aed137446b75af45f&cndid=64059896&hasha=af2abdaff071a02601714e7c932cab6c&hashc=c3422073626128ef3b950949ebc57072ea99a28079de0274b4aa0d20bf99d956&esrc=MARTECH_ORDERFORM

Does anyone here Make a distinction between meme coins and Bitcoin?

Yes, Bitcoin maybe there is something there.. at the margins, in some use cases, for some people.

Meme coins appear to be pure scam machines.

>> Does anyone here Make a distinction between meme coins and Bitcoin?

I had not realized the legal distinction between these until recently. I am no expert, but it seems to amount to how they are marketed. If you say “This is a serious coin, meant for investment / transactions / storing value”, then that is a seriouscoin that subjects you to certain regulation (which of course might change). However, if you say “This is a memecoin with no purpose other than fun, with no value or desire to have value other than the joy of owning digital rights associated with some freely copy-able picture(s) that might be entertaining”, that is a memecoin not subject to those same regulations.

It’s kinda similar to dollar bills vs Monopoly money, where the distinction lies in what people believe about the pieces of paper. I don’t think that’s entirely true, however. The fiat in dollars extends far further than common belief. There are all sorts of security measures, physical and digital. There is the backing of the economy of the US as protection against printing presses, the solvency of its govt, its property rights apparatus.

With Bitcoin vs memecoin, it seems like fiat is the only distinction there is. The underlying technologies are often literally the same, the mediums of exchange, etc.

So I think there is a distinction — in the fiat Bitcoin vs memecoin currently commands. But that fiat is not as deep as the paper money equivalents.

Thanks for the article, stache. Got me thinking about the number of layers of intermediaries between me and my assets that would say “We’re not legally allowed to send the ransom money he’s requested, so you’re just gonna have to kill him. Please let him know we’re sorry to be losing him as a valued client.”

Talk about traumatized for life! Hope this guy has some very strong mental faculty, they freaking cut one of his fingers off and meld it into his company! By the way, ledger seems to be the preferred cold wallet.

@keith: re: making a distinction... BItcoin (and ethereum) is nominally trying to be a currency (value tied to the ability to be medium of exchange and hold a relatively stable value). Other coins represent an investment in an underlying product (value tied to an underlying asset [either physical items or present value of future cash flows]) though those are mostly gone, as they were legally 'securities' (i.e., met the 'Howey test'), and have been regulated / prosecuted out of existence. Memecoins don't represent an investment in anything (don't meet the definition of a security), and have no relationship to an underlying physical or denominatable asset - it's a thing that can be bought and sold, for a price that is set by those choosing to buy/sell it.

By the way, Bitcoin, relative to it's price 30 days ago when you first asked, is at ~$87,170, down ~17%. So maybe it's time to stock up while it's 'on sale'. (Dow is down ~2.8%, S&P down ~1% over the same period).

Meme coins soon to be an excellent vehicle for the creators to make many millions of dollars through things like sniping etc. seems like if you actually make any money with a meme coin as a consumer, it's the equivalent of winning on a slot machine? Seems like there's also quite a bit of money to be made by the creators in trading fees.

If there's one thing I feel very certain about regarding Bitcoin, it's extremely volatile, just look at the history. What's happened over the last 30 days is nothing. If I wasn't a buyer it's $6,900. I don't think I'm a buyer at 87,000 ; ) although I would be tempted to buy one of the Bitcoin ETFs offered by BlackRock or Fidelity if it got down to $50,000. Maybe just a little something, speculation or gambling?

I think I read the other day that strategy just purchased another 21,000 BTC, they currently hold 500,000 BTC. Is Michael Saylor a scammer or a true believer??

Scammers are the people that launch and hype meme coins... not those who buy them

"... if you actually make any money with a meme coin as a consumer..." It is because you have found a greater fool. Fixed it for you.

Meanwhile, the economics of Saylor's vehicle (MSTR) are completely wonky, as it's trading at a significant premium to its underlying 'asset'. i.e., bitcoin + whatever trivial amount the software part of the business is worth). (somewhere around 471k bitcoins, worth around $41Bn, vs a market cap of $73Bn). Would you buy any other asset for nearly twice it's underlying value (assuming a tangible definition of 'value' for bitcoin)? If so, I've got a nice UES 1 BR I'd like to show you. Closing transaction must be in USD.

>> Would you buy any other asset for nearly twice it's underlying value (assuming a tangible definition of 'value' for bitcoin)? If so, I've got a nice UES 1 BR I'd like to show you.

I dunno, you see this sort of thing all over the place. About 20 years ago, I was in a 1BR whose cap rate was 2.x% with mortgage rates at 6.x%. People couldn’t buy them fast enough. Now it’s a 3.x% cap with mortgage rates at 6.x%, and the market is crickets. What’s changed with the “underlying value”? As far as I can tell, the main reason for the difference seems to be whether the prior 10 years had gangbusters price increase vs. flat-to-slightly-down.

It's all about expectations

https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/ckgdy5e3neko

And yesterday the SEC weighed in with their views on the regulation of memecoins.
"Meme coins typically are purchased for entertainment, social interaction, and cultural purposes, and their value is driven primarily by market demand and speculation. In this regard, meme coins are akin to collectibles. Meme coins also typically have limited or no use or functionality."

Beanie Babies, essentially, for the people who weren't around 30 years ago during that spin around the dance floor. If you have an investment thesis that encompasses generating income off of some category of collectibles, go for it.

https://www.sec.gov/newsroom/speeches-statements/staff-statement-meme-coins

Avon bottles, anyone?

I can't believe nobody has commented yet on Trump's game changing announcement of yesterday afternoon re crypto - USG is now officially a buyer?

Do I want my taxes going into this? Hah-uh, sorry: no

This is a pay out to the crypto crowd that helped him into office pure and simple. It is beyond outrageous with no public policy justification even ventured by the any of the morally bankrupt think tanks that will produce a white paper to support pretty much anything. Nevertheless, the electorate does not care.

But it would appear that the crypto bigwigs are not happy. As he's including a basket of crypto, whereas they want this alternative to gold to just be Bitcoin.

@keith - This was not geared towards the true believers; this was a payout for the scammers, and they are plenty happy.

Such simpletons…

You start with Bitcoin. If you’re doing Bitcoin, some Ether should be included too, no? And XRP, Solana, Cardano… I’ve heard great things about those. And you know what, people tell me all the time that I should include $TRUMP. I don’t really wanna, but that’s what people say. I dunno, let’s see. Nah… but maybe I’ll give give them a small allocation.

@inonada: The admin probably has a direct line to your guy at the gym for hot tips

I doubt they’d want his input. He seems like a honest and competent guy.

I don't know if the average. Joe, buying this funny money is really having that big of an influence on our presidential elections.

Why not? From https://www.security.org/digital-security/cryptocurrency-annual-consumer-report:

- Cryptocurrency ownership has nearly doubled in the three years since the end of 2021. In 2025, approximately 28% of American adults, or about 65 million people, own cryptocurrencies.

- 14% of people without crypto plan to buy it in 2025, and 67% of current owners plan to buy even more this year.

- 60% of adults familiar with crypto believe that the value of cryptocurrencies will increase during Donald Trump’s second presidential term, and 46% believe that Trump will boost mainstream cryptocurrency adoption in the U.S.

You have a populace in a very transactional mood who’ve elected a very transactional president. Maybe it’s short-sighted, but this seems to be where we seem to be.

People . . . it is not the average Joe we are talking about. Pay attention - it is the VC's. This is a direct transfer of tax payer dollars to Marc Andreessen, Brian Armstrong et al. Look up the campaign dollars, look at who has changes their public stances on crypto (Musk and Trump), look up big shareholders in the crypto exchange that stands to benefit the most. This one is beyond debate even among the FedSoc group who started out as quite uneasy with Trump. The Never-Trumpers have become Forever-Trumpers on the age-old wisdom of "If you can't beat them, join them."

This is the ultimate pump and dump. I do not believe Congress will enact this nonsense; in the mean time, every Average Joe out there is going to be buying crypto, driving up the price. Those in the know know it will not come to fruition and will dump at the perfect time, and it will not have been a crime. Again, those who will profit believe it is their natural-given right to take the money of anybody who is not paying sufficient attention (or who does not have the time or skill set) to stop them.

The big players in crypto that you refer to are most interested in Bitcoin as the digital, gold replacement. There are thousands of other coins that are actively used as pump and dump schemes, at least so far that hasn't been the case with BTC. That is the realm of meme coins and snipers.
https://www.cnbc.com/2025/03/04/pro-trump-techies-enraged-by-crypto-reserve-plan-causing-early-rift.html

@keith - not true. The investors in crypto exchanges are thrilled, one in particular. It is all theater. Believe me, or don't. It is your money.

To be clear: They are all waiting to see how gullible the electorate is and they are poised to win either way. All of them know the idea is nonsense, so they are being honest about pillorying the idea, but they will have no problem profiting from the theater. Trump is not even remotely serious about this idea, but may become serious about it if that turns out to be the best move in his personal interest. Every day is a game for him.

Oh the electorate cares, mcr, it's just that there are "other fires" to distract us..

and when I say "one in particular," I am referring to one exchange in particular, not one investor in particular.

@Ali - exactly. More of their brilliance in playing the country.

Honestly, it is all so dismaying. I'm not even sure how much longer I can continue judging Andreessen et al. We as a country get the government we deserve. That crew is just taking advantage of the situation in much the same way as many avail themselves of every loophole in the tax code. As long as it is legal, then it is fair.

One last thought - now that the casino is fully open and all legal, my hope is that anyone who rolls the dice will report back. There is a chance for financial gain even if the house usually wins. If you do win, recognize that you were lucky and take your money off the table!

1929 all over again.

https://www.nytimes.com/2025/03/06/technology/bybit-crypto-hack-north-korea.html?algo=clicks_decay_6_diversified&block=3&campaign_id=142&emc=edit_fory_20250306&fellback=true&imp_id=4507989372278177&instance_id=149294&nl=for-you&nlid=20545630&pool=channel-replacement-ls&rank=4&regi_id=20545630&req_id=8647826507166407&segment_id=192757&surface=for-you-email-channelless&user_id=af2abdaff071a02601714e7c932cab6c&variant=0_channel_translated_pool_popularity_pers

Trying to decide if it time to cash out of Bitcoin while my holdings are still 80% profit.

hodl!

You heard it here first:

https://www.nytimes.com/2025/03/07/technology/sam-bankman-fried-pardon-trump.html?unlocked_article_code=1.2U4.aGia.nIuh6Trq6eL-&smid=nytcore-ios-share&referringSource=articleShare

https://www.wsj.com/us-news/inside-sbfs-campaign-for-a-presidential-pardon-from-trump-baf53eb4?st=bdEepL&reflink=article_copyURL_share

I could see him doing it just to tweak Sassoon and Kaplan. However, I suspect it largely depends on how Trump's current crypto besties feel about SBF. I don't think there is a lot of love there.

There is zero upside to pardoning SBF, In the end he was disliked by most of the people who made him who he was. There's no way to paint a picture that he's a hero to the cryptocurrency true believers .

SBF is in solitary

SBF being in solitary because he couldn't stop running his mouth / play by the rules is the most SBF thing he could have done.

https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c2kgndwwd7lo

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=f1CdbCsetpw

A few takeaways from this: criminals, terrorists, people who have been debanked - they have a real interest in crypto.

The more people believe stablecoins are really backed by dollars or gold or whatever, the more companies that issue them have a strong incentive to lie and say they have more reserves to back up their coins than they do. Formula for a crash.

And that Trump is promoting a basket of crypto backed by stablecoins as a way to divert international investment (by China, Japan, UK, EU) in dollar backed securities. That would have the effect of weakening the dollar which he - or his people - hope would promote reindustrialization in the Midwest without damaging the dollar's role as the world's reserve currency.