Best Leading Indicator of Residential Market?

What do people consider the best leading indicator(s) to predict the future performance of residential property in the New York City area? We often look at trend stats such as price, absorption rates, and days-on-market but these data points are only determined when properties are sold and the past is not necessarily predictive of the future. Are traditional leading economic indicators such as... [more]

What do people consider the best leading indicator(s) to predict the future performance of residential property in the New York City area? We often look at trend stats such as price, absorption rates, and days-on-market but these data points are only determined when properties are sold and the past is not necessarily predictive of the future. Are traditional leading economic indicators such as trends in household income, population, housing supply, or employment too general or too long-term? Consumer confidence would seem critical for an early warning system but I wonder how to know how many people are in the very early stages of a home search and whether they are planning on trading up, trading down, or perhaps leaving town. I wonder if in time, the prices for services such as Premier Agent or Premier Broker could be used as a reliable early indicator: https://therealdeal.com/2017/11/14/premier-agent-prices-soar-but-brokers-pay-up/ [less]